For sale: Dipper County Clare C/G

[Azalin]

So, when you see your savings melt with the stock market, buying an expensive concertina might not be a priority.

Alternatively, when your invested money earns damn all and not even major banks seem safe, a really quality concertina looks a reasonable long term investment and at least in the short term you can play it.

 

The classic 'bike market is healthy for exactly this reason, I'm told. If you get no interest on your money anyway, you can at least have some fun with it. (I can supply a highly desirable Matchless P11 to anyone wanting to invest in this particular field...)

 

Yes, the problem is, these investments can't be used in a registered retirement account. In Canada, we have big tax credits when we invest in such a fund. But anyway I think now people don't have money at all to invest, either in the stock market, concertinas, bikes or anything else.

 

I'm saying this because some of my own recent stupid, risky investment crumbled a bit in the past few weeks, so any expense seems like a big deal to me right now.

[Greg Jowaisas]

So, when you see your savings melt with the stock market, buying an expensive concertina might not be a priority.

Alternatively, when your invested money earns damn all and not even major banks seem safe, a really quality concertina looks a reasonable long term investment and at least in the short term you can play it.

 

The classic 'bike market is healthy for exactly this reason, I'm told. If you get no interest on your money anyway, you can at least have some fun with it. (I can supply a highly desirable Matchless P11 to anyone wanting to invest in this particular field...)

 

Yes, the problem is, these investments can't be used in a registered retirement account. In Canada, we have big tax credits when we invest in such a fund. But anyway I think now people don't have money at all to invest, either in the stock market, concertinas, bikes or anything else.

 

I'm saying this because some of my own recent stupid, risky investment crumbled a bit in the past few weeks, so any expense seems like a big deal to me right now.

 

Guillaume,

Well, at least you have the Dipper to comfort you. At the very least we will be able to entertain one another in the bread or soup line.

 

I think this will all get better eventually. But if not, hey! That's (our) life.

 

Greg

[Azalin]

Guillaume,

Well, at least you have the Dipper to comfort you. At the very least we will be able to entertain one another in the bread or soup line.

 

I think this will all get better eventually. But if not, hey! That's (our) life.

 

Greg

 

Yes you are totally right... and the Dipper definitely comforts me, the sound of this thing amazes me everytime I push (or pull!) the bellows. You think they have chicken soup? Chicken soup and a Dipper, that's all I need ;-)

[tombilly]

I'd repeat that your best bet is to sell locally for highest price you can get and/or the person you'd like to sell it to. That $6300 equates to Euro 5000 + as things stand here in Ireland. Plus any prospective purchaser would have to pay shipping, insurance and then substantial import and VAT fees on receipt. Paying that sort of dosh for an instrument unseen is not particularly attractive and this is at your lower end of expectation. Tough..

[danersen]

This and similar discussions frequently capture my attention, but I haven't commented until now.

The dynamics and interplay of the global economy/economies are quite relevant, so I offer the following for perspective and consideration.

For the record, I am not a prospective buyer of this concertina nor am I knowledgable of anyone who may be.

 

On 9th October 2007, the Standard & Poor's stock index reached its all-time high of $1565.

The exchange rate was approximately 1.90 £ to 1.00 $ making the exchange yield approximately £824.

 

Today, the S&P is $1023 - approximately 65% of what is was in October 2007 - now nearly 3 years ago.

 

In November of 2007, a new Dipper was quoted approximately £5000. Today's S&P equivalent is £3250.

I know, I know - the price of a new Dipper didn't drop 65% as the S&P did,

But stay with me, please, as this is about the economic effect on buying, not pricing.

And to that end, austerity programs and rising unemployment due to the sub-prime mortgage collapse and Sovereign debt is influencing the number of interested parties who are currently capable and wiling to buy. That number, it is fair to say,has been reduced to a degree indicative of the S&P index.

 

In the fall of 2007, the exchange rate £:$ was hovering about 1.90

Today, the exchange rate £:$ = 1.52

 

Consequently, in the fall of 2007, a £5000 Dipper would cost $9500 {5000*1.90}.

Today, that £5000 Dipper will require only $7600 {5000*1.52}

 

The S&P index yields the following:

Today $9500 will purchase a £6275 Dipper {9500*0.65} and that lesser $7600 will now purchase a £4940 Dipper {7600*0.65}.

 

In November of 2007, a Dipper sold on bay eBay for £4800, and the quote for a new Dickinson at the time was @ £5200 - both exclusive of VAT, shipping, other associated fees.

 

Using these prices as reference amounts, the Dipper which sold for £4800, sold for the equivalent of $9120 at that time {4800*1.92} would cost $7296 today {4800*1.52}.

Today's S&P equivalents yield $5926 and $4742 respectively.

 

For simplicity, I'm using the following assumptions:

Import = VAT @ 17.5%

Currency exchange and wire fees @2.5%

Estimate for fees @ 20%

 

Using the current high offer of $6300 and multiplying it times 1.20, the cost for the subject resale Dipper to a UK buyer will be the equivalent of $7560 plus shipping & insurance with no warranty and no wait.

The cost in today's currency for a new Dipper at a quote of £5000 is @ $7600 plus shipping & insurance with warranty and an indefinite wait.

 

These are the economics of 2007 - which seems to be the basis of the values suggested - relative to today.

 

In my opinion, the rest is emotion - urgency and desire - and timing .... assuming that the capacity and will are present.

[hjcjones]

Danersen, with respect I really don't understand your argument. Obviously, the global economic climate cannot be ignored, and the pool of potential buyers will probably have reduced - there are probably some who would want to buy this instrument but who cannot now raise the funds, and others who have the funds but who are now cautious about spending on non-essentials in the current climate.

 

You seem to be saying that the number of potential buyers will have dropped by a similar proportion to the S&P index, but I really don't see how that correlation can be made. However, even if that assumption were correct, it cannot then be assumed that it will have an equal effect on price. It only takes two able and willing buyers to make a market. What they will offer will depend on their perception of the worth of the instrument to them, and the value of other equivalent instruments.

 

It also requires a willing seller, and given the long-term upward trend in concertina values then most sellers will prefer to hold on to the instrument rather than accept a price which may be depressed by a temporary downturn. Of course, there will be some sellers who in a position of having to sell, whether due to the global economic situation or other circumstances. However forced-sale prices are not considered reliable evidence of market values.

 

As I said in my earlier post, the price an instrument will sell for will be determined by supply and demand at the time of the sale. I don't deny that the economic crisis will have a bearing on this, but I think your calculations are fundamentally flawed.

 

The skill of valuing anything lies in interpreting data about earlier sales and extrapolating from them. I cannot agree that a stock market index provides an appropriate basis for extrapolating concertina values. A prices index might give a better indication, although I would still be very cautious. As this is an international market, you would have to take account of economic conditions and prices in all the countries where a buyer is most likely to come from, as well as allowing for currency rates (as you have done).

 

I think Dippers are particularly difficult to value. They are highly prized in some quarters, and don't come onto the market very often, so any opportunity to acquire one will attract interest. From the limited market evidence, it appears that second-hand Dippers attract a significant premium over the price of a new instrument, to avoid Colin's waiting list. On the other hand, they are not as well-known or sought-after as Jeffries by the ITM market, which seems to be the main driver forcing up prices for anglos.

[danersen]

Howard,

I think part of the point is to illustrate that we are not experiencing a temporary downturn.

A new base is being established in all matters economic - especially among "luxury" items.

The number of Lloyd Loar mandolins, Pre-war Martin acoustic guitars, and vintage Fender electrics that are languishing for extended periods without sale could be considered astonishing compared to the pace and price of sales in 2007. The Jeffries at the Button Box might also be relevant here.

Real Estate vales are depressed. Commercial development - even Dubai - is stagnant. Tourism has diminished significantly.

Even the ice makers for the shrimpers in Louisiana have closed their doors - due primarily to the oil gush.

All of this does, in fact, affect the price and pace of all goods bought and sold.

And the price and pace of 2007 - too often the hopeful point of reference when it comes to valuation - will not return for many years to come.

You are correct that it only takes one buyer and a seller for a transaction to occur.

But it requires many buyers to make a market; hence the demise of more upscale and specialty retailers in the last couple of years than can hardly be counted.

The current pace of the market is sluggish at best, and price is correspondingly suppressed.

I cannot think of anything - even oil, with the daily wasteful gushing in the Gulf - that is consistently more expensive today than it was in 2007.

I realize that supply and demand is at play here. But what drives demand - the desire for something accompanied by the capacity and willingness to pay the asking price.

My illustration is just that - an illustration of the economic dynamics that are being experienced globally.

Other references/benchmarks may be more useful, and my numbers may need to be tweaked, but the outcome will be consistent with my illustration.

My point is that the price and pace of the worldwide market has been significantly altered, and many - if not most - have not thoughtfully considered that the accelerated pace and elevated prices of the market just three years ago have left us and are not likely to return for a very long time.

My point, simply stated is that "things ain't what they used to be" ... and they're not going to be.

Be Well,

Dan

Edited July 5, 2010 by danersen

[colledge]

In November of 2007, a new Dipper was quoted approximately £5000.

 

I don't recall a new Dipper, from the source, ever being that high. Am I wrong?

 

I thought it was more like £3-4000, depending on what you're getting.

which makes this analogy very confusing, relative to this persons sale.

[Azalin]

In November of 2007, a new Dipper was quoted approximately £5000.

 

I don't recall a new Dipper, from the source, ever being that high. Am I wrong?

 

I thought it was more like £3-4000, depending on what you're getting.

which makes this analogy very confusing, relative to this persons sale.

 

Exactly. Sounds more like the quote for a 40 buttons Dipper. I'd say £3500 for a 30 buttons would be closer to the mark.

[danersen]

Hello,

I was going from my memory of my conversations and correspondence with Colin around 2007.

I just checked the notes.

In May 2004, Colin estimated that my ordered concertina would be delivered in 2007 and could cost approximately GBP 4000-5000.

The subject concertina is an English with air valve, aeola or edeophone style, raised amboyna ends, gold hardware, and riveted action.

Perhaps that will provide the proper perspective and someone more knowledgable than I am about the relative values can make the proper adjustments to pricing for the Clare.

Just for perspective, I do have a note from 1998 with a quote from Colin for a 30-button County Clare at GBP 1500 which was equivalent to Approximately USD 2500 at the time - a conversion rate of about 1.67.

For the record, I still have not received my Dipper despite the 2007 estimated delivery.

If the price for the Clare is inflated in my example, the illustration is no less relevant to the point - though the effects will, in that case, actually be understated.

Be Well,

Dan

[David Levine]

Danersen is wrong. The Heisenberg indetermination principle asserts that while you can measure the general movement of molecules in a certain space, you cannot therefore determine the movement of just one molecule. While the prices of houses, luxury liners, and fiddles might have taken a nose-dive over the past two years, this has nothing to do with the price or sale of a single concertina. Or anything to do with the price or value of a single house, luxury liner, or Stradivarius violin.

 

What has been said in this thread, regarding the sale of a Dipper, is only idle kibitzing. Nobody knows the value of the instrument. I doubt all this chatter has helped the sale on Cnet at all. In fact it might have hurt the sale.

 

Which I assume is why such chatter is not allowed on other sites.

 

 

 

(edited to change italics)

Edited July 5, 2010 by David Levine

[megmcd2]

I've been offered US$6,500 for this instrument.

[hjcjones]

Dan, I quite agree that the credit crunch has affected nearly everyone. What I disagree with is that you can simply adjust 2007 values of concertinas by reference to other indices, and especially stock market indices. They are simply not related in any meaningful way.

 

The market for concertinas, even in more affluent times, is very small compared with that for most other assets. Good quality concertinas, and especially Dippers, come onto the market infrequently and at unpredictable intervals. The supply side at any given time is therefore very limited. Even in the good times, the number of serious bidders for any instrument is, I would guess, unlikely to be more than about half-a-dozen people. Of course the credit crunch will have reduced the number of people able and willing to buy concertinas, but you only need two competing purchasers to make a market.

 

If, as you suggest (probably correctly), this is not a temporary downturn then it is even possible that people will reappraise their financial position, think "What the hell, you only live once" and decide to buy a concertina even if it represents a greater percentage of their wealth than it would have done a few years ago. People have been putting off purchases of all sorts of items in the hope that things will get better, but now they've realised things aren't going to improve in the foreseeable future they're getting on with their lives, including buying luxury items.

 

Any concertina sale depends on timing - a probably unique instrument coming onto the market at a moment when there is a prospective purchaser who is able and willing to buy it. Even in the good times, instruments have failed to sell because there wasn't a purchaser at that particular time. My guess is that the current economic climate may make it a little more difficult for anyone selling a concertina to achieve a sale quickly, but if there is a buyer (and especially if there is more than one) I doubt whether prices will have fallen significantly. Recent auction sales of Jeffries concertinas have continued to achieve high prices, and if they have not reached the silly levels of a couple of years ago it has to be remembered that some of the record prices achieved seemed even at the time to be well above the market norm.

 

I cannot think of anything - even oil, with the daily wasteful gushing in the Gulf - that is consistently more expensive today than it was in 2007.

The crude oil price is actually slightly higher than it was in July 2007, after rising considerably in 2008 and then falling back. In the UK, the price at the pump is substantially higher than it was in 2007.

 

You are also way out in your estimate of the price of a Dipper. I bought a new 31 button Cotswold in July 2007 for substantially less than £5000 (I'm not going to say what I paid). Of course, if you order something non-standard then his price will increase accordingly, which presumably accounts for the figure you were quoted. The inevitable waiting period explains why second-hand instruments sell for more than new ones.

[danersen]

Meg,

At today's exchange rate that USD6500 is roughly equivalent to GBP4276.

In 2007 that same USD6500 was roughly equivalent to GBP3421.

The relative value of the exchange rates presents an interesting dilemma:

Is the pound or the dollar the constant?

Now, the real questions:

What is Colin's quote today for a new one? (Has anyone contacted him for a current quote?)

How long before it will be delivered?

What is the currency value of time in pounds or dollars?

 

David,

Perhaps, but it can be inferred.

Your argument sounds like all of those individuals who sincerely believed that my house won't diminish in value even though there are foreclosures all about, or that my portfolio won't suffer the losses that all the others are, or that one particular stock won't tumble when the entire market is crumbling.

Do you really think that a Dipper County Clare is in the same category as a Stradavarius?

And, once again, for the record, I'm not kibbutzing. I'm not a potential buyer, nor do I know one.

Edited July 5, 2010 by danersen

[danersen]

Howard,

I concur with your thinking in general.

Timing is everything.

Sometimes, however, circumstances deter prospective buyers from even looking to buy.

When fewer prospective buyers are looking, timing has fewer opportunities.

I do, perhaps, think that the recent dynamics of the economy play a greater role on the sale of anything and everything - including specialty items- than you do.

The UK oil prices that you describe are different than my experience. This holiday weekend, the pump prices increased to about $2.70 a gallon here in the Denver metro.

They're different throughout the US by region - even by municipality - but they've been in the $2.50.- $2.60 a gallon range where I usually fill-up.

In 2007, the prices were over $4.00 a gallon as I recall.

Another indication, perhaps, of the complex dynamics we are experiencing in different ways.

 

All,

I certainly didn't intend to opine about the actual value of the subject concertina.

I reread my I initial post, and perhaps did not make this as clear as I might have.

I don't think I opined on the value of the concertina, but if it was perceived as such, I offer my apology for any confusion.

My intent is simply to illustrate that changes in the dynamics of the economy create differing perceptions of value depending on what currency one is using as a reference and the purchasing power of any particular currency at a given time.

My illustration intended to speak to the value of currency more that the value of the subject concertina.

Edited July 5, 2010 by danersen

[tombilly]

If, as you suggest (probably correctly), this is not a temporary downturn then it is even possible that people will reappraise their financial position, think "What the hell, you only live once" and decide to buy a concertina even if it represents a greater percentage of their wealth than it would have done a few years ago. People have been putting off purchases of all sorts of items in the hope that things will get better, but now they've realised things aren't going to improve in the foreseeable future they're getting on with their lives, including buying luxury items.

 

Yes... but if you follow the logic that this is not a temporary downturn, then prospective buyers have to reappraise the value of everything. A piece of property may have been worth $x a couple of years ago but only $y now and in the foreseeable future where $y is substantially less than $x. Nobody is going to pay the higher amount unless they are desperate. Same applies to musical instruments unless I suppose they are quite unique and the maker has departed this life. Owners of musical instruments need to get their head around this - I'd probably make a loss of some degree on my fairly ordinary Lachenal if I sold it now, having purchased it in 2008. But that's the way it is. Things don't always hold their value - it's not written in stone.

[Azalin]

... there's one thing that will probably rise in value through any financial disaster: gold (and some other natural resources). Anything else can be subject to devaluation. I wish I had a concertina made of gold made for me a few years ago, while gold was at 300$

[Geoff Wooff]

So, when you see your savings melt with the stock market, buying an expensive concertina might not be a priority.

Alternatively, when your invested money earns damn all and not even major banks seem safe, a really quality concertina looks a reasonable long term investment and at least in the short term you can play it.

 

The classic 'bike market is healthy for exactly this reason, I'm told. If you get no interest on your money anyway, you can at least have some fun with it. (I can supply a highly desirable Matchless P11 to anyone wanting to invest in this particular field...)

 

Nice idea Dirge,

but I've done the classic bike bit and great though it was, second youth and all that, I think I'll stick to me bath chair and concertina, at my age.

Geoff.