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Randy Stein

Taking the gig in the time of pandemic: Do I?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, seanc said:

Imo... if you are currently and have been self isolating then I would say no. Don’t do it.

 

if, however, you have been out and around, going shopping, in grocery stores, picking up take out, etc.. then I would do it. I would assume that you will be set up at least 6-10 feet away from customers. And if they have a small stage you can set up at the far or farthest point.

if you don’t sing, wear a mask, etc.

 

 

I don't see the logic in this contri. Are you saying that those who can be reasonably certain that they are not currently infected should not take a risk but those who may (or not) have contracted the disease might as well take the risk? Which risk exactly? What side are you arguing from? The side of the one whose biggest fear is getting infected himself or the one who is concerned about being unknowingly infected and thus in danger of infecting others?

 

While there is still a number of things we do NOT know about the virus, there are a number of things we DO know about its pandemic behavior, for example that with the symptomatic cases, the average turnover between becoming infected and showing symptoms is around 6 days. Another thing that appears to be well confirmed is that the highest virulence of infected people is directly before the symptoms show; afterwards, even in complicated cases the contagiousness approximates 0, at least as far as droplet and aerosole infection is concerned.

 

Thus, anyone who has been in some form of quarantine (either explicitly prescribed or determined by lifestyle/personal situation etc) for around at least a week is very unlikely to actively infect others around him/her unknowingly EVEN IN THE CASE OF AN ASYMPTOMATIC RUN. Likewise, anyone insecure about whether recent activity in public may have infected him/her has the option of another week in seclusion to be reasonably certain of not infecting others. To me, the concern about being a part in the infection chain much outweighs the fear of getting infected myself, even though I officially count as an enhanced risk case.

 

I have already answered Randy in private about what choice I would make in his situation based on similar reasonings, but the point I want to make here is that we must be careful what point of view to argue from. Looking at the demoscopic distribution of forum members, I believe that most of us (being members of the older generation in fairly set and stable environments) live in circumstances that make us little susceptible of contracting the virus ourselves (except maybe for those who are professional musicians and thus spend extended times in poorly aired crowded venues which are prime Corona distribution centers). There is almost no evidence that everyday social activities such as shopping in supermarkets or walking in the streets are exceptionally dangerous in terms of contracting the virus. The only reason why I am somewhat weary about public activities is that I am concerned about infecting others, but again, if there is reason to believe that I may have become infected, I am reasonably confident that it takes not more than a week of extra caution to exclude that danger after such activities.

 

Knowing the distribution patterns of the virus helps a lot in maintaining a good balance between leading an everyday life and taking the responsibility for oneself AND for others in pandemic times.

 

BTW, here is sad news for those "of good stock:" TOO good an immune system may be counterproductive in fighting the infection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm)...

Edited by RAc

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13 hours ago, Little John said:

...my belief is that the consequences would be minor for me.

 

That's one point where our risk assessments differ.  I have a history of recovering quickly from infections, including a couple that might have been expected to  kill me.  But I strongly believe in the "Wall Street" maxim that "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns."  And the behavior of this particular coronavirus is so different from any previous disease that I'm unwilling to assume that my body's response to it will necessarily be in any way similar.

 

In the beginning, it was assumed that it was just like "any other flu", including assumptions as to by what means it would spread, latency before appearance of symptoms, duration of infection, who would be most vulnerable, and even what bodily organs it could affect.  All of these assumptions have since proven to be drastically wrong.  And yet many authorities sre still responding as if they are correct.

 

E.g., various airlines are now checking the temperature of boarding passengers and denying boarding to any passenger with a fever.  Yet many who are infected with covid-19 have no fever.  My sister was one of those.  And then there was the meat-processing plant in Missouri where all workers were tested for this coronavirus:  373 of them (17%) tested positive, yet of those 373, not even one showed any symptoms whatsoever.

 

Later this week, I expect to get an antibody test.  If it turns out positive, I will take that as evidence that my body has been infected and has successfully fought the infection.  I will not take it as proof that my body is necessarily immune to future infection, because the scientific tests regarding that conclusion have so far been inconclusive.  I.e., there have been enough reports of "repeat" infections to cast doubt.  So even then, I would continue to be cautious.

 

And if I were in the US, I would certainly be restricting myself even more severely than I am here in Denmark, where I'm being far more cautious than most of my neighbors.

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9 minutes ago, RAc said:

...with the symptomatic cases, the average turnover between becoming infected and showing symptoms is around 6 days.

 

There's that delusional (my own characterization) word... "average".  It goes along with the word "normal", and is often used to define the latter.  The "average" tells me nothing about the upper and lower limits or the shape of the distribution.  The fact that most individuals may be "safe" after a certain period of time does not guarantee that any particular individual will be, especially when essentially nothing is known about whether other factors might interact.

 

I'm reminded of an incident (long ago, now) when I was feeling unusually stressed, physically.  My doctor checked my blood pressure and told me it was "normal", to which I responded, "Then you'd better check me over thoroughly, since what is usual for me is 30 points below what is generally assumed by the medical profession to be 'normal'." 

 

BTW, I'm not attacking your personal analysis of the situation.  But I am criticizing the way the media -- and even the scientific community in general -- misrepresent what can and can't be logically concluded from research data.

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I do like Theo's practical take on this.  Helpfully find another headliner!

But, ladies and gents, all this social/scientific intellectualizing...

You could get hit by a bus tomorrow...

 

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2 minutes ago, Devils' Dream said:

You could get hit by a bus tomorrow...

 

I would almost certainly be aware of the approach of a bus.

 

I would in most cases not be able to see whether the coronavirus was approaching.

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8 hours ago, RAc said:

 

I don't see the logic in this contri. Are you saying that those who can be reasonably certain that they are not currently infected should not take a risk but those who may (or not) have contracted the disease might as well take the risk? Which risk exactly? What side are you arguing from? The side of the one whose biggest fear is getting infected himself or the one who is concerned about being unknowingly infected and thus in danger of infecting others?

 

While there is still a number of things we do NOT know about the virus, there are a number of things we DO know about its pandemic behavior, for example that with the symptomatic cases, the average turnover between becoming infected and showing symptoms is around 6 days. Another thing that appears to be well confirmed is that the highest virulence of infected people is directly before the symptoms show; afterwards, even in complicated cases the contagiousness approximates 0, at least as far as droplet and aerosole infection is concerned.

 

Thus, anyone who has been in some form of quarantine (either explicitly prescribed or determined by lifestyle/personal situation etc) for around at least a week is very unlikely to actively infect others around him/her unknowingly EVEN IN THE CASE OF AN ASYMPTOMATIC RUN. Likewise, anyone insecure about whether recent activity in public may have infected him/her has the option of another week in seclusion to be reasonably certain of not infecting others. To me, the concern about being a part in the infection chain much outweighs the fear of getting infected myself, even though I officially count as an enhanced risk case.

 

I have already answered Randy in private about what choice I would make in his situation based on similar reasonings, but the point I want to make here is that we must be careful what point of view to argue from. Looking at the demoscopic distribution of forum members, I believe that most of us (being members of the older generation in fairly set and stable environments) live in circumstances that make us little susceptible of contracting the virus ourselves (except maybe for those who are professional musicians and thus spend extended times in poorly aired crowded venues which are prime Corona distribution centers). There is almost no evidence that everyday social activities such as shopping in supermarkets or walking in the streets are exceptionally dangerous in terms of contracting the virus. The only reason why I am somewhat weary about public activities is that I am concerned about infecting others, but again, if there is reason to believe that I may have become infected, I am reasonably confident that it takes not more than a week of extra caution to exclude that danger after such activities.

 

Knowing the distribution patterns of the virus helps a lot in maintaining a good balance between leading an everyday life and taking the responsibility for oneself AND for others in pandemic times.

 

BTW, here is sad news for those "of good stock:" TOO good an immune system may be counterproductive in fighting the infection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm)...


 

rac..

I am arguing from the if you have been self quaranting for what ever reason. Then I would probably suggest not taking the gig.

 

If you have been out and around then, I would take the gig.

 

if it were me.. I have gone to work every day, been shopping regularly and generally trying as best as possible to go about my life as usual. I would either take the gig, or be happy to support him by going where would be playing and having a drink or eating.

 

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Well, I didn't expect the discussion to become as acrimonious as it did, but unfortunately we are all wound pretty tight these days. It is interesting to hear some people's issues, needs and perspective that this disease has created in life's new direction.

So to put this to rest, I did not take the gig. Even though it's outdoors and the restaurant is taking more than the necessary precautions, I only need one person to transmit and wham, I'm a goner. BTW, I don't sing but am an instrumentalist. Me singing would cause additional undue suffering.

As we all miss our friends, sessions, jams, and performances, I am actually seeing creative ways for people worldwide to share their music. Musicians are collaborating through various online apps and finding ways to play and jam with people continents away. In many ways as we social distance we have become closer as a musical community. 

So fear not. There's always another gig around the corner. And one day we'll all sally up to the pub for pint with friends and jam. Until then, stay safe and hang by your thumbs.

r

 

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54 minutes ago, Randy Stein said:

Well, I didn't expect the discussion to become as acrimonious as it did, ...

 

Only on a forum as generally civilised as this could the discussion be described as "acrimonious"!

 

LJ

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I know the decision is already made, but I just came upon this thread, so let me weigh in...

 

I am also in Randy's age group, and have some medical issues (including a heart procedure and a cancer history), so I consider myself at high risk if I meet the virus. That being said, Julie (my wife) and I had dinner last night at one of our favorite restaurants that just reopened their outdoor seating area as this part of New York State has entered Phase 2 of reopening. The restaurant is taking all the usual precautions (disinfected tables and chairs well distanced, masked servers, abundant hand sanitizer, etc.).

 

I think the most important factor is that it is outdoors. That really minimizes the risk, and I felt safe. Certainly as safe as I have felt on the occasions in the past few months when we have gone walking in public parks, well-distanced and masked.

 

If you can get to the restaurant without taking public transportation, I would think the risk is less than it is going out to buy food and toilet paper in indoor markets.

 

But the most important factor, of course, is your own comfort level, and therefore you made the right decision.

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Someone on the "Gigs from Hell" Facebook group says they've been offered an extra 25% "hazard pay"

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I'm in a similar age group with no underlying health conditions.  You won't find me even going out to eat when things open more.  I know how hard it would be for my family if I got sick.  Lots of folks still depend on me for care taking and mentoring.     If I were 30 and not interacting with older folks, maybe.    We can't control other's behavior around us in public so I avoid going out as much as possible.  If I were in a smaller town with no tourists or out-of-towners, maybe.    Music has become a solitary activity.  But after all my decades of experiences and changes it is just another thing to adjust to.

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