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JimLucas

Brexit -- after Jan. 31 - tariff questions

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Brexit is supposed to go into effect Jan. 31, 2020.  Then the UK will no longer be part of the EU tariff union.  I've read that certain tariff agreements with other countries will continue (or be copied?), but that others will need to be (re?)negotiated.

 

So what happens while those negotiations are taking place?  Will there be no tariffs on shipments to/from those countries?  Will trade with those countries come to a halt until tariffs are put in place?

 

But in particular, what is happening between the EU and the UK?  I expect that eventually there will be tariffs on at least some goods, but I haven't read that any such tariffs have yet been passed into law.  If they're part of the "Agreement", I don't know where to find them.  If not, then what happens when a bought/sold concertina is declared to customs between Jan. 31 and when tariff laws are passed by the two governments?

 

In 10 days, this could become very relevant.

Edited by JimLucas
correct typo

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement :

 

" The negotiated and from both EU and UK government agreed withdrawal agreement, if passed by the House of Commons, provides for a transition period after leaving the EU until 31 December 2020, in which the UK would temporarily effectively stay in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is agreed. However, the latter remains subject of negotiations yet to come. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would remain the default outcome in 2021. "

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Thanks.

 

If I understand that right, then it's still no tariffs on transactions between the EU and the UK for the immediate future.  Yes?

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Hi Jim,

 

what makes you think that anyone on this forum would be able to give a definite answer, after the unbelievable chaos that happened on the political stage for three years? I don't believe anyone has a clue, in particular not the decision makers "in charge." To me it seems as if the current status is more or less bought time. Lots and lots of open questions with nobody in sight who appears to even know where to start looking for answers.

 

The idea (as far as I understand it) is that, yes, the transition period until a final agreement is meant to preserve the status quo in at least the trade relationship between the EU and the UK. It's certainly something everybody in Continental Europe and most people in the UK would like to see happen, but you never know what happens in the UK parliament. I wouldn't bet on anything in this respect. All we can basically do is hold our breath and hope that sanity will eventually return.

 

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My understanding of the transition period is the same as by Rac above - no change up to Jan2021.

That said, despite claims to the contrary here, many European commentators say a comprehensive agreement is not possible in the time available -

an extension must be requested by July 2020 and our Prime Minister says he won't request one. This could mean leaving with no agreement in Feb 2021.

For my part, I'll expect the worse given how things have gone to date.

Make no plans based on optimism or statements from this side of the Channel.

nb: The Withdrawal Agreement does not include anything about the future relationship with Europe. In fact the latest Bill excludes commitments to Standards and Rights previously  included.

 

 

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11 hours ago, RAc said:

what makes you think that anyone on this forum would be able to give a definite answer, after the unbelievable chaos that happened on the political stage for three years?

 

My question was not about what will happen eventually.  My question is about what happens immediately after Jan. 31, and I think you have answered that.

 

I'm not planning a business for the future, but I was wondering if there could be a significant financial difference between buying an instrument from a Brit (I'm in the EU) in January vs. in February.  You (and now arti) seem to have answered that:  I don't need to contort my finances in order to do a rush purchase within the next 9 days, though the situation may be quite different if I'm in a similar situation next December.

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On 1/22/2020 at 10:57 AM, JimLucas said:

I don't need to contort my finances in order to do a rush purchase within the next 9 days, though the situation may be quite different if I'm in a similar situation next December.

 

That's my view as well, Jim.

 

Best wishes - 🐺

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On 1/22/2020 at 9:57 AM, JimLucas said:

 

My question was not about what will happen eventually.  My question is about what happens immediately after Jan. 31, and I think you have answered that.

 

I'm not planning a business for the future, but I was wondering if there could be a significant financial difference between buying an instrument from a Brit (I'm in the EU) in January vs. in February.  You (and now arti) seem to have answered that:  I don't need to contort my finances in order to do a rush purchase within the next 9 days, though the situation may be quite different if I'm in a similar situation next December.

Everything remains the same - UK remains a member of the single market, including customs union, until 31 December 2020.

A trade deal with the EU may change things after 1 Jan 2021 - but that won't serve UK industry very well, with many companies now threatening to follow those already moved to EU27.

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